Used automotive costs preserve falling as market provide improves

A steep improve within the variety of used automobiles on supplier heaps, outpacing demand-side progress, means the dreaded days of record-high used automotive costs look behind us.

The common worth of used and demonstrator automobiles in Australia’s dealerships have been coming down for 9 months now, and completed October at their lowest level since December 2021.

The regular discount in costs, by 7.0 per cent from the center of 2022 when the market peaked, coincides with a steep uptick in used automotive availability as measured by supplier stock ranges.

Supplier used automotive inventory throughout Australia sits on the highest stage since March 2020, with nationwide stock rising by 28.3 per cent throughout the previous 12 months.

That is due in no small half to the gross sales information we’re persistently seeing within the new automotive market – with 5 of the previous six months setting all-time supply information as manufacturing facility provide rebounds and normalises. 

This uptick in new automobile deliveries, whittling again carmaker order backlogs, has seen a spike within the variety of used vehicles both being  traded in or re-marketed by wholesale auctions. 

On the similar time, demand for used automobiles isn’t as excessive as this improve in provide. Whereas inventories have swelled by 37.5 per cent throughout this 12 months, used automobile gross sales are up a extra modest 11.2 per cent throughout 2023, which in flip means market days’ provide sits at its highest level throughout the final 12 months. 

Sellers on common are at the moment taking 41 days to resell a used automobile. Some 39.4 per cent of those gross sales required a worth change earlier than being delisted, by a mean low cost quantity of seven.1 per cent between itemizing and sale. In different phrases, four-in-10 buyers haggle down the worth. 

This info comes from retail knowledge and wholesale public sale agency Cox Automotive Australia (CAA), which retains tabs on used automobile market tendencies throughout age, section and gasoline sort. 

MORE: VFACTS October 2023, one other month, one other Australian new automotive gross sales file

It’s necessary to maintain updates on used automobile costs in context nonetheless, since they’re nonetheless fairly a bit steeper than they have been earlier than the COVID outbreak and related market chaos. 

The CAA used worth index, adjusted by new worth and quantity weighted, makes use of a 100-point base interval of December 2019. The present index of 137.8 means the common used automobile is 37.8 per cent costlier than in December 2019, earlier than the pandemic noticed used costs spike.

Whereas worth indexes are usually falling this 12 months irrespective of car age and sort, older vehicles proceed to retain increased common worth indexes than newer ones do. The sample is constant, with one contributor being family demand for older and cheaper vehicles amid the cost-of-living disaster.

SUVs aged below two years have a worth index of 116.3, whereas SUVs aged eight to 10 years have an index of 139.4; whereas passenger vehicles below two years have a worth index of 121.9 in opposition to 166.9 for these aged eight to 10 years. This implies older automobiles’ relative costs stay proportionately elevated, not increased than newer inventory.

Throughout all automobile age brackets within the database, the general worth index for conventional lower-riding passenger vehicles is 147.6, which is notably increased than the worth index for SUVs (130.7) and pickups (139).

That is attention-grabbing contemplating the continued decline in gross sales of those kinds of automobiles within the new automotive market, as manufacturers roll out extra SUVs and supply fewer new hatchbacks, sedans and wagons. It suggests buyer demand for these automobiles would possibly nonetheless be increased than what carmakers are offering the market.

Battery electrical automobiles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid automobiles (PHEVs) make up solely 0.3 per cent of used automobile gross sales and 0.5 per cent of stock at current – no shock given these automobiles actually solely began to spike in gross sales on the brand new facet of issues final 12 months, and are subsequently largely nonetheless with their first house owners.

CAA says it’s seeing the used worth index for BEVs and PHEVs (116.3) staying decrease than different automobile varieties, as points similar to buyer doubts round used battery well being, and components discouraging used BEV demand similar to new-car-focused fringe-benefits tax exemptions and rebates linger.

One other indicator of the used market is the wholesale sector, the place fleets eliminate grounded automobiles by large-volume auctions. New automobiles availability means these fleets which were holding onto older vehicles for longer than regular are actually turning over their automobiles at a quicker charge than the non-public market. 

Wholesale public sale quantity by CAA’s Manheim enterprise doubled in October 2023 over 2022, and grew 20 per cent month-on-month. That’s the perfect quantity end in three years. Since many sellers prime up their heaps with these vehicles, count on this to knock-on to the non-public market. 

The takeaway? Financial institution on extra alternative and decrease costs on used vehicles, with the largest drop-offs being on late-model automobiles relatively than older inventory, which is in increased demand because of financial headwinds hitting households laborious. Anticipate additionally for SUV costs to melt faster than hatchbacks and sedans, that are in shorter provide. 

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